Highlights of the Economic Survey 2018-19
The Survey is inspired by Gandhiji's Talisman: “…Recall the face of the poorest man [woman], and ask yourself, if the step you contemplate is going to be of any use to him [her]
- Survey sees FY20 GDP growth at 7%, higher growth on stables macros. The real GDP growth projection reflects a recovery in the economy after a deceleration in the growth momentum in 2018-19. Growth is expected to pick up in 2019-20 as macroeconomic conditions continue to be stable while structural reforms initiated in the previous few years are continuing on course.
- India needs to grow at 8% per year to be $5 trillion economy by FY25.
- Investment the "key driver" of simultaneous growth in demand, jobs, exports & productivity
- Green shoots in investment activity seems to taking hold.
- Rural wages growth seems to have bottomed out and has started to increase since mid-2018. Further growth in rural wages should help spur rural demand.
- One of the biggest hurdles to the economy is poor enforcement of contracts and dispute resolution. Steps to speed up legal process should be top priority.
- Savings & growth are positively co-related. Savings must increase more than investment.
- Indian MSMEs need to be freed from shackles that convert them into dwarfs. MSMEs need to be seen as a source of innovation, growth and job creation.
- Investment rate seems to have bottomed out.
- Jan-March has seen economic slowdown due to poll related activity.
- NBFC stress reason for FY19 slowdown.
- Decline in NPAs should push up CAPEX cycle.
- General fiscal deficit seen at 5.8% in FY19 VS 6.4% in FY18. General fiscal deficit is defined as the balance of income and expenditure, and includes the deficit of the central and state governments.
- Investment rate seen higher in FY20 on improved demand.
- Oil prices seen declining in FY20.
- Accommodative MPC policy to help cut real lending rates.
Published date : 04 Jul 2019 02:24PM